The Met Office has issued an El Niño UK storms warning, telling the public to expect wetter and stormier conditions through autumn and into early winter as a result of what forecasters are calling the most intense El Niño signal in modern records.
El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, disrupting global rainfall patterns and pushing up average temperatures. This year’s event is forecast to see that warming exceed 3C in the coming months, which the Met Office says would make it the largest El Niño since the 19th century.
El Niño UK storms warning: what the forecasters are saying
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, was blunt about the scale of the threat. ‘We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,’ he said. ‘I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.’
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Scaife went further, saying: ‘We’re expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over 3C. That is unheard of in modern climate records … it’s up 2C degrees already.’ The Guardian reported those comments on 21 August 2026.
To put that in context, Scaife explained: ‘A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2C, with 2C being a really big event. This implies that if the forecast is accurate (and other forecast systems show similar extreme values) then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.’
For the Northeast and the rest of north-western Europe, that translates directly into a heightened risk of storms and heavy rainfall this autumn and early winter. The flip side of the coin hits the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia hard, where drought risk rises sharply.
A drought-hit summer, then a soaking autumn
The timing of this El Niño UK storms warning could not be more stark. The UK has just come through a brutal stretch of heat and dry weather, with the driest July in 190 years. Almost three-quarters of England (71.3%) and all of Wales have been pushed into drought, placing severe pressure on water supplies, wildlife, farmers and emergency services.
Reservoir levels have fallen to 62.6%, some 16.3% lower than is expected for this time of year, according to Defra. The sudden switch to heavier showers this week is not the solution: forecasters and officials have warned it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers, reservoirs and groundwaters are fully replenished.
The National Drought Group, which brings together the Met Office, regulators, government, water companies, farmers, scientists and conservation organisations, said this week’s rainfall and cooler temperatures will not make any significant impact on current water scarcity. Drought conditions could persist into the new year, as current forecasts do not suggest this autumn will deliver the rainfall needed to drive recovery before December.
Parts of the country did see meaningful downpours earlier this week. The Environment Agency recorded 52.5mm of rain falling over Morecambe in Lancashire in 24 hours, which represents a third of the region’s rainfall totals for the period between 1 June and 18 August. Pevensey Bay in East Sussex recorded 32mm over the same 24-hour period. That sudden deluge on parched, hard ground sparked immediate flash flooding concerns.
The longer temperature picture is equally stark. Met Office Science Fellow Dr Nick Dunstone said that during large El Niño events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere. ‘Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period,’ he said.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief of science and technology, framed the summer’s heatwaves as a double warning: climate change compounded by natural variation. ‘This large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change,’ he said.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham, speaking after an emergency Cobra meeting to discuss the heatwave, told the public directly: ‘We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Niño.’ After a summer like this one, that may be small comfort, but brace for it.